869被浏览134,327分享邀请回答51454 条评论分享收藏感谢收起graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/）每次该还钱的时候希腊就就有点耍赖皮，说还不上，不然就退出（当然这段是我脑补）。不过可以想象的是希腊自以为主要的债主（德国法国意大利）并不想让希腊退出Eurozone。其实Eurozone一直希望希腊能够重组自己的银行和财政结构（现任政权在选举之时给选民画的饼太大 - Pension schemes, public wealth, benefits等等），不过人家熊孩子就是不改能有啥办法？希腊知道如果退出对于Eurozone有影响，所以攥着这点跟ECB和IMF讨价还价（以下对话为脑补。。。）：Eurozone：希望你能重组，否则我们没法再Bailout你了。希腊：咬我来啊，我还不上钱我也不重组，要么Bailout要么write off，要么我退出，对了德国你的战争赔款呢？？那么计算希腊退出的成本对于ECB来说就是另一个筹码了。意思就是说，“你又不是too big to fail”，我们正在计算成本，虽然不是没有但是是可控的（注4）。那么希腊退出对于Eurozone、ECB有什么代价（成本）？首先当然是之前的Bailout很大可能希腊就会Default了。目前应该有大概有EUR 240 billion （注5）。这个数量大概只有不到5%的Eurozone 2013 年GDP，所以并非Catastrophic。接下来会影响一些Eurozone国家（德法意等希腊债权国）的国债Yield（价格下降Yield上升），从而影响ECB的QE进程。然后是进一步影响投资者的EU信心，可以预见的是短期的汇率下降，经济继续放缓。然而我认为并不会影响长期，甚至于长期是有益的（个人观点）。有国家退出了Eurozone，对于长期的Eurozone的Credibility可能有影响，但是在我看来具体是好是坏说不清楚。很多影响（成本）不太好量化。不过在多方面看来有翻天覆地的影响的可能性不大，毕竟希腊退出已经喊了好几年了，整个Europe听到这个都不能叫新闻了。。。。。注1：.Automatically updated 3 times per year in February+May+November. European Commission. 7 November 2012.注2： . Bloomberg Businessweek. 3 May 2010.注3：McMeeken, Roxane (6 November 2011). . The Independent (London).注4：注5：
- yahoo news3110 条评论分享收藏感谢收起Greece's sovereign-debt crunch（希腊主权债务危机） A very European crisis（一次全欧洲的危机） The sorry state of Greece’s public finances is a test not only for the country’s policymakers but also for Europe’s （陷于困境的希腊公共财政不仅仅是对这个国家的政策制定者们的考验，也是对整个欧洲的考验） Feb 4th 2010 | from the print edition
Illustration by Robert Venables（罗伯特?维纳布尔斯的举例说明） SOME would say that tragedy was inevitable from the moment, nine years ago last month, when Greece was admitted to the euro zone. Others would claim that woe was sure to befall such a disparate currency union sooner or later: if not Greece, then some other weak member of the club would have been the cause. Avoidable or not, trouble has arrived. At best, Greece has to undergo a dramatic budgetary tightening. Its fellow Europeans, or the IMF, may yet have to organize a humiliating bail-out. Some even talk―probably mistakenly―of the beginning of the end of the euro area. 一些人会说，九年前的最后一个月，当希腊被纳入欧元区的时候，悲剧的发生就是不可避免的了。其他人也说灾难迟早会降临在这个完全不同的货币联盟，即使不是希腊，这个欧元俱乐部也会有其他的弱势成员带来这一系列的问题。不管是否可以避免，问题已经出现了。最好的情况就是，希腊会遭受突然的预算紧缩。它的欧洲同伴，或者是国际货币基金组织，可能需要组织起对于希腊来说具有羞辱性的救援。一些人甚至说道，如果出现一点点错误，那么对于欧元区来说，这个是开始也意味着结束。 Last year Greece's budget deficit reached 12.7% of GDP. Worries over whether the Greeks would act to cut it have caused paroxysms in the bond markets: late last month the yield on ten-year Greek government bonds vaulted to 7.1%, the highest since the country joined the euro area and about four percentage points more than that on German bunds, the euro zone's safest investment. The panic abated on February 3rd, when the European Commission endorsed the Greek government's plan to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012. The day before, Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, had used a television address to announce higher taxes on fuel and an extension of a public-sector wage freeze to include low-paid civil servants. 去年希腊的财政赤字占了它的GDP的12.7%。担忧的蔓延导致希腊开始削减财政支出，已经造成了债券市场的波动：上个月，希腊政府十年期的债权的收益率已经跳至7.1%，这是希腊加入欧元区以来的最高纪录，比欧元区最安全的德国国债高出了近4个百分点。在2月3日，市场恐慌开始减轻，因为欧洲委员会批准了希腊政府在2012年之前将财政赤字降低至只占GDP的3%的计划。在那天之前，希腊总理乔治?帕潘德里欧通过电视演讲宣布对燃料征收更高的税，同时也延长公共部门的工资冻结期，这也包括低收入的国家公务员。
However, Greece and Europe are not out of trouble yet. The commission says it will watch Greece closely to ensure that it keeps its promises: it expects a report in mid-March on Greece's chances of hitting this year's deficit target of 8.7% of GDP. Joaquín Almunia, the outgoing economics commissioner, said he hoped a positive 1
assessment by the commission in mid-May would help restore confidence in Greece, which has one of the world's largest debt burdens relative to its GDP (see chart 1). 然后，希腊和欧洲仍然没有走出困境。委员会宣称它将紧密地监督希腊以确保希腊可以遵守它的承诺：它期待在三月中旬可以有一份报告说明希腊本年度的财政赤字只占GDP的8.7%的目标能有多大的几率实现。即将离职的经济委员会委员华金?阿尔穆尼亚说他希望委员会在三月中旬推出一封积极的评估可以帮助希腊重振信心，而希腊目前拥有着与它的GDP紧密关联的世界上规模最大的主权债务。 Related topics
? European markets 欧洲市场 ? World markets 世界市场 ? Financial markets 金融市场 ? National debt 国家债务 ? World politics 世界政治 If the Greeks do not regain the markets' confidence, they may fail to refinance the 20 billion ($28 billion) or so of debt that falls due in April and May. At that point the government would default or would have to be bailed out. And Greece is not the only country about which the bond markets are worried. On the same day as the commission approved the Greek plans, investors were selling Portuguese bonds. The spread of ten-year bonds against bunds widened by 0.16 percentage points, to 1.43 points. 如果希腊人还不能恢复对市场的信心，他们将不能筹集到200亿欧元的资金或者偿还在四月和五月份到期的债务。到那时政府将会违约或者面临强制性的救援。而希腊并不是唯一的一个债券市场蔓延着恐慌情绪的国家。在委员会通过希腊救援计划的同一天，投资者正在抛售葡萄牙债券。十年期债券和德国国债的价差增加了0.16个百分点，至1.34%。 A marathon, not a sprint（是马拉松，而不是冲刺） Greece has a long history of fiscal trouble. It has spent half of the past two centuries in default, note Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in “This Time Is Different”, a history of financial crises. When it became the 12th country to join the euro in 2001, its public debt was more than 100% of GDP. Many thought its chronic budgetary mismanagement might harm the currency. 财政困难在希腊是有很长的历史的。卡门?莱因哈特和肯尼斯?罗格夫在“这次是不同的”这篇文章中指出，在过去的两个世纪中，希腊有一半的时间是处于违约的状态下，这简直就是金融危机的历史了。当它在2001年成为第12个加入欧元区的国家的时候，它的公共债务占GDP的比重超过了100%。很多人认为它习惯性的预算处理失误将可能会给欧元带来麻烦。 For Greece, membership was a boon. Bond markets no longer had to worry about high inflation or devaluation. Lower interest rates allowed the government to refinance debt on more favorable terms: the ratio of net interest costs to GDP fell by 6.5 percentage points in the decade after 1995. The underpricing of default risk during the credit boom gave Greece easy access to longer-term borrowing. Lower interest rates also spurred a spending splurge. The economy grew by an average of 4% a year until 2008. 2
对于希腊来说，成为欧元区的成员意味着有利可图。债券市场不会再因为高通胀率或者货币贬值而担忧。低利率意味着允许政府通过各种有利的项目进行再融资：在1995年之后的十年里，净利息成本在GDP的比例已经下降了6.5个百分点。在信贷繁荣期间，违约风险的下降让希腊更容易获得长期贷款。同时，低利率加速了挥霍性消费。在2008年以前，平均年度经济增长率达到了4%。 But strong GDP growth masked the underlying weakness of the public finances. The public-debt ratio fell, but only because GDP in cash terms grew more quickly than debt. Large budget deficits continued. Once it was safely inside the euro, indeed, Greece relaxed its fiscal grip. The primary budget balance (ie, excluding interest payments) was in surplus in the run-up to membership but has been in deficit since 2003. That did little to cool the economy. Greece's inflation rate stayed above the euro-area average, hurting its competitiveness. The economy relied increasingly on foreign borrowing. The current-account deficit widened to 14.6% of GDP in 2008.
但是强劲的经济增长掩盖了公共财政潜在的缺陷。公共债务负债比率下降，但是也仅仅是因为GDP的增长带来的现金流的增长比债务的增长要快得多。庞大的预算赤字仍在增加。希腊在欧元的体系里曾经确实很安全，所以它放松了对于财政的控制。在希腊成为会员的准备期期间，基础预算平衡（不包括利息支出）保持剩余，但是从2003年开始就出现了赤字。那并不能帮助给过热的经济降温。希腊的通胀率保持在欧元区的平均水平之上，削弱了它的竞争力。经济对外国贷款的依赖度不断提高。在2008年，经常项目赤字在GDP的比重已经增长到14.6%。 If Greece had retained its own currency, trouble might have come sooner. But in the months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Greece was shielded by euro membership. It could still borrow easily, if not as cheaply, in bond markets even as investors' aversion to risky assets peaked last March. The economy was on course for a shallow recession at worst. Greek banks were free of the toxic mortgage securities that felled others. Forecasts for the 2009 budget deficit, at 5% of GDP, seemed almost modest compared with the gaping shortfalls projected for other countries. 如果希腊使用的还是自己的货币，那么麻烦可能来得更快一点。但是在雷曼兄弟破产之后的几个月中，希腊还受到了欧元区各成员的保护。它仍然可以轻松地借到钱，在最后一个三月，如果不是因为价格低廉，在国内的债券市场投资者对于风险资产的厌恶已经达到了顶峰。最糟糕的情况就是经济正走向缓慢的衰退。 Yet the reality was far worse, as became clear after October's election. The new government said the true deficit was likely to be 12.7% of GDP. Worse, the shortfall for 2008 was also revised up to include unpaid bills to medical suppliers. The mild downturn hurt tax revenues more than the previous administration had let on. The economy probably shrank by 1% last year, but consumer spending fell by more. Value-added taxes, a reliable source of revenue, were squeezed. Control of public spending had been relaxed in the run-up to the election, adding to the deficit. 实际的情况更为糟糕，在十月的大选之后变得清晰。新成立的政府说实际的赤字有可能会达到GDP的12.7%。更糟糕的是，2008年的财政亏空也被修正以包含医疗供应商的未付账单。而轻微的经济衰退对税收的影响甚至比前任政府的遗留下来的影响还严重。经济规模在去年可能萎缩了1%，但是消费者的消费下降得3
更加厉害。增值税是税收来源中最可依赖的重要部分，也正受到挤压。当局在大选的预备期内放松了对公共消费的限制，导致了赤字的增加。 Investors' trust in Greek statistics, never solid, was shattered. Two of the three main credit-rating agencies, Fitch and Standard & Poor's (S&P), cut their rating on Greek bonds and gave warning that a further downgrade was likely. A debt standstill by Dubai World, a state-backed property venture in the Middle East, made bond investors more nervous about sovereign risk. Greek bond spreads started to widen again. In mid-December the government responded with a fresh plan to cut the deficit. Bond markets were unconvinced. So were the rating agencies: Fitch and S&P cut Greece's grade again, from A- to BBB+.
投资者从来没有真正地相信过希腊的统计数据，因为那些统计数据是不完整的。三家主要评级机构中的两家，惠誉国际和标准普尔下调了希腊国债的级别同时警告投资者希腊有深度衰退的风险。迪拜世界是中东一家具有国家背景的风险投资公司，它陷入了债务停滞，使得债券市场的投资者对于主权风险基金的恐慌加剧。希腊的债券息差开始再次扩大。在12月中旬的时候希腊政府以推出新的赤字削减计划作为回应。债券市场仍旧缺乏信心。所以惠誉国际和标准普尔两大评级机构将希腊的信用等级从A-下调至BBB+。 On January 25th the Greek government enjoyed some brief reassurance, raising 8 billion in a sale of five-year bonds. The bank syndicate charged with placing the bonds said it had drummed up 25 billion-worth of orders in a matter of hours from investors attracted by an interest rate of 6.2%. Yet within a couple of days Greek bond yields were on the rise again. Stories that China had turned down an offer of Greek bonds―denied in both Athens and Beijing―also unsettled markets. 在1月25日，希腊政府仍享有短期的担保，通过发行五年期的债券筹集到80亿欧元资金。承担发行这些债券的银行财团说，只不过在短短几个小时之内，就招徕了差不多25亿欧元的订购，投资者无一例外不是被6.2%的利率吸引来的。目前，在几天之内，希腊债券的收益率仍在上升。有传言称中国拒绝购买希腊债券，但是雅典和北京方面仍未就此表态，此事件也是引发市场动荡的原因。 Predictably, Mr Papandreou blames speculators for the flare-up in the markets. But he also concedes that his country has been left vulnerable by its own profligacy. If the government wants to restore the bond markets' confidence, it will have to be bolder. 帕潘德里欧一如既往地指责投机者是造成市场动荡的罪魁祸首。但同时他也承认了他的国家是由于自己的肆意挥霍导致经济十分脆弱。如果政府想要重新恢复市场的信心，需要采用更加冒险的策略。 The planned cuts to the public-sector wage bill look small when set against such a large budget deficit. They also look timid when compared with the much bolder action taken in Ireland, another cash-strapped euro member. In December the Irish government announced big reductions in civil servants' pay, only months after it had introduced a “pension levy” that cut public-sector wages by 7%. Its courage has been rewarded with lower borrowing costs. 该项计划将削减公共部门的工资支出，尽管这项支出与如此庞大的预算赤字比起来只是很小的一部分。与采用更加冒险的方式的爱尔兰相比，他们仍然是胆小了一点，爱尔兰是欧元区另外一个经济困难的倒霉蛋。在12月，爱尔兰政府宣布4
大幅度下调国家公务员的薪水，而仅仅在提出征收退休金税几个月之后，便将公共部门的支出削减了7%。它的胆识收到了效果，借贷成本相比之前更加地低了。 Greece's finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, says the main problem in his country's civil service is overmanning, not excessive pay: the right approach is to slow recruitment and allow the payroll to shrink as civil servants retire. Fine, but time is not on his side. To appease Greece's jittery creditors a policy with speedier and more visible results is needed. A big pay cut in the public sector would help. Private firms might then find it easier to follow suit, which would help Greece to regain its cost competitiveness. 希腊财政部长乔治?帕帕康斯坦丁努说，他的国家目前的主要问题在于公务员过剩，而不是过高的薪水：目前正确的方法应该是减慢招募新公务员的速度，同时允许部分公务员退休，以缩小工资总额。这个是一个很好的办法，但是时间已经不允许这么做了。为了安抚那些焦虑不安的债权人，希腊需要迅速地出台政策以及给出更多可看见的结果。大幅度削减公共部门的开支是有效的。接着私营企业可以更加简单地如法炮制，这将会帮助希腊重拾其成本优势。 The government says it will present a plan for pension reform soon. Greece has one of the most generous, and therefore expensive, state pension systems among the 30 mostly rich OECD countries. Workers look forward to a pension of 96% of pre-retirement earnings. Greeks can no longer afford such a comfortable old age. In his television address Mr Papandreou hinted that a higher retirement age would be one plank of reform. 政府说很快就会推出一项退休金改革计划。在经济合作与发展组织的30个富裕国家中，希腊拥有最为庞大而昂贵的国家退休金体系。工人们希望可以退休金可以达到退休前工资额度的96%。而希腊再也无法给那些老年人提供那么安逸的生活。在帕潘德里欧的电视演讲中，他暗示提高退休年龄将会是改革中的一项措施。 A bolder package of budget cuts might secure bond-market finance at tolerable interest rates. The Greek government says it has to strike a balance between budget cuts and keeping its “social partners” happy. But if it is too kind to public-sector workers, pensioners and so forth, it will struggle to find buyers for its bonds. If the bond markets are closed to Greece, the country will face bail-out or default. Neither option is likely to contribute much to social peace. 一揽子冒险的预算削减计划或许可以保证提供给债券市场的资金处于一个可接受的利率水平。希腊政府表示在预算削减和维持它的社会伙伴满意之间的平衡已经被打破。但是如果对公共部门的工作人员、退休的人等太仁慈的话，它将很难为它的债券找到买家。如果希腊的债券市场关闭的话，国家将会面临经济困难或者债务违约。似乎已经没有一个选择可以对社会的稳定做出再大的贡献了。 Which bucket to bail with? The thought that Greece might fail to carry out the necessary budget cuts has had officials scratching their heads about the form a bail-out might take. When yields soared in late January, nervous Eurocrats were briefing journalists that a rescue package for Greece was being considered. The treaty governing the European Union includes a “no bail-out” clause, forbidding countries from assuming the debts of others. That clause was inserted in 1991, at the insistence of Germany, at the EU summit in Maastricht, the Dutch town where many of the ground rules for the euro 5又悲剧了！希腊公投说“不” 欧元开启崩溃模式
来源：搜狐理财
作者：FX168
　　FX168讯 尽管此前民调显示周日(7月5日)希腊公投结果会十分接近，但实际情况却让人“大跌眼镜”，希腊民众在投票中以压倒性多数反对国际救助条款，令希腊退欧风险直线飙升，欧元兑主要货币在周一亚洲时段早盘重挫。市场人士早就警告称，若结果为“否定”，则可能意味着欧元区将失去希腊，从而导致欧元的稳定性遭到动摇。
　　根据外媒报道，希腊公投95%投票已开，反对票占61.3%、赞成票占38.7%。“反对”者取得令人吃惊的胜利，推翻了此前的民调结果。多份民调原本预期两方力量不相上下。
　　“反对”的投票结果让希腊和欧元区都进入未知的情况：在欧元区内可能遭遇金融和政治孤立，而且若债权人拒绝提供进一步帮助，可能出现银行业崩溃。
　　国际货币组织(IMF)上周警告，希腊将需要大规模债务减免，并需要500亿欧元新的资金。
　　欧洲决策者已经公开警告，公投“反对”的结果将意味着拒绝与债权人和欧元区谈判，则希腊将得不到任何外部资金来避免破产，而只能靠自己。这在很大程度上将取决于欧洲央行(ECB)，该央行周一上午将评估希腊银行业依赖的紧急流动性政策。
　　在希腊公投选择“不”以后，欧元/美元在周一亚洲时段大幅跳空低开，最低一度触及1.0967，目前交投于1.1025附近。
(欧元/美元走势图 来源：Zerohedge、FX168财经网)
　　市场对公投结果呈现出典型的“避险”反应，日元成为主要受益货币。欧元/日元重挫1.6%至134.24，美元/日元从上周五的122.80跌至121.94。美元指数则升0.3%至96.43。
(美元/日元走势图 彭博、FX168财经网)
　　众多拥有最高评级的主权获得强劲买盘，美国股指下跌约1.4%。油价也遭挫，其中布伦特原油跌0.67美元，至59.65美元/桶。
(布伦特原油走势图 来源：Zerohedge、FX168财经网)
　　希腊退欧风险剧增
　　希腊民众以压倒性的投票结果反对国际救助条款，分析师警告称，这导致希腊退欧风险剧增，且可能导致欧洲分裂，并引发金融灾难。
　　对数百万希腊人而言，公投结果向债权人发出了愤怒的信号―即希腊无法再接受重复的财政撙节举措―这些举措已让四分之一的希腊人失业。
　　过去一周中，许多希腊伙伴已警告称，公投结果若为“反对”，将切断希腊和欧洲之间的联系，将希腊已经残破不堪的金融体系直接推入破产境地，希腊经济萧条将严重恶化。
　　此外，这一结果也让欧盟“雄心勃勃”的单一货币计划遭受“沉重打击”，欧元这一全球第二储备货币的地位岌岌可危。
　　澳洲国民银行(NAB)全球策略主管Ray Attrill表示，希腊退欧风险已明显大幅攀升，并成为公投后唯一最有可能发生的事情。
　　Attrill认为，尽管如此在新协议最终达成的前提下，其他可能性，包括银行长时间关闭、谈判的不确定性、政府可能垮台加起来仍接近50%。
　　Attrill补充称，市场可以肯定的一点是，立即给予希腊齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)领导的希腊政府大幅减免债务的温和协议将面临道德危机风险，且无法保证希腊将执行所同意的改革，出现这种情形的可能性还不及希腊退欧。
　　澳新银行(ANZ)分析师在一份报告中写道：“公投产生了两个结果：使希腊政府的立场合法化，并且把球踢给了欧洲法院，要么欧元区退让，要么希腊破产；这要看德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)的了。”
　　欧元区财长周二将开会，为关于希腊问题的欧元区紧急峰会做准备。欧洲理事会主席图斯克(Donald Tusk)宣布将在北京时间周三00:00召开欧元区峰会。
　　欧元集团主席戴塞尔布卢姆(Jeroen Dijsselbloem)的发言人Michel Reijns周日表示，欧元区成员国财长将在周二开会，为当天稍后就希腊问题召开的欧元区紧急峰会做准备。
　　Reijns在推特上称：“欧元集团将在7月7日周二再次开会，为希腊问题的欧元区峰会做准备，会议开始时间待定。”
　　三井住友银行(Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.)驻东京的外汇交易业务主管吴田真二(Shinji Kureda)稍早曾表示，如果希腊周日公投结果为“反对”，美元/日元和欧元/日元周一在亚洲市场开盘可能走低。
　　吴田真二称，市场担忧公投结果为“反对”，希腊退出欧元区的恐惧会加深；如果美元多单平仓，美元/日元很有可能跌破121.00。
　　彭博策略师Vassilis Karamanis稍早曾就不同公投结果的情况作出预测，他曾指出，若投“反对”票的比例大于55%，达成协议的机会大大减少;希腊退欧/平行货币的机率上升，因为希腊政府料将加强其挑衅立场。欧元/美元将面临显著压力，会跌破近期的交易区间低点。
　　欧洲央行是否会在当前受限的情况下继续向希腊提供紧急流动性，这是首先要面临的考验。除非欧洲央行提供紧急援助，否则希腊银行业者料数日内资金告磐。
　　希腊财长瓦鲁法基斯(Yannis Varoufakis)表示，既然公投已经结束，现在恢复银行体系的流动性“绝对必要”。
　　但央行人士称，在选民拒绝削减支出和经济改革后，欧洲央行可能不愿增加对希腊银行业的紧急资金支持。欧洲央行周一上午将召开电话会议。
　　新西兰银行(Bank of New Zealand)外汇策略师Raiko Shareef称：“欧洲央行或仍将对希腊的银行提供紧急融资，直至政治领导人有明确态度。不管怎样，市场将面临一个充满未知数的时期以及旷日持久的谈判。”
　　花旗(Citigroup Inc.)证券交易策略主管Antonin Jullier说：“现在有一大部分要取决于欧洲央行给予希腊银行业甚么流动性援助，欧洲央行有能力遏制危机蔓延...但欧洲市场周一可能仍将有3%的跌幅。”
　　校对：卢瑟
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