投机和套利有什么主要的不同_期货吧_百度贴吧
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投机和套利有什么主要的不同收藏
不解释 ！！！！答的上的乃神人！
投机是单向操作，套利是双向
投机是在同一个市场上发现价格的偏离，套利是在不同的市场上发现价格差异。
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为兴趣而生，贴吧更懂你。或国际金融名词解释课后答案
country’s international transactions.External Balance achieves an
1.Official settlements balance or Overall Balance 官方结算差额overall balance of payments that is sustainable over time.
一国的外部平衡以国际贸易相关的目标来评价。外部均衡是指可
（综合账户差额或总差额）
持续地实现国际收支的总体均衡。
The overall balance(B) equals the sum of the current account
8.The “locomotive theory” 火车头理论 balance(CA) plus the private capital account balance(FA).
Growth in one or more large economics in the world like the B=CA+FA.
United States,Japan,Germany and China, can raise growth in
综合账户差额或总差额，也称官方结算差额，等于经常账户差额
other smaller countries that trade with these large countries. (CA)加上私人资本账户余额(FA)。
Growth in the largest economics reinforcing the higher growth of
2.Dirty Float or Managed Float 肮脏浮动（有管理的浮动）
all countries.
Governments often do not allow a clean float,but rather take
指一个或多个经济大国（如美日德中）的经济增长能带动这些大
actions like official intervention to manage or dirty the float.This
国有贸易伙伴关系的其他效果的经济增长。这些大国的经济发展提policy approach--an exchange rate that is generally floating(or
高了进口量，进而拉动世界上其他国家的经济增长，同时这些国家flexible)but with the government willing to intervene to attempt to
influence the market rate--is called a dirty float(or a managed float).
的经济增长又会反过来促进大国的经济更快地增长。
2013.1国际金融名词解释
各国政府一般不允许汇率完全自由浮动，而是采取官方干预对汇率
的浮动进行管理。汇率基本上是浮动的（或灵活的），但同时政府
又通过干预试图影响市场汇率，这种政策被称为肮脏浮动（有管理
的浮动）。
3.Crawling peg 爬行钉住
The government decides to fix local currency to gold or a single other currency or a basket of other currencies, and decides the
width of a band around the central fixed rate,the exchange rate
has some flexibility around this par value but the flexibility is limited by the size of the band.If the government often changes the fixed
rate,the approach is called a crawling peg.
政府决定将本币与黄金或某种单独货币或一篮子货币挂钩，并确
定中心固定汇率波动的区间宽度，汇率可围绕法定平价上下波动，
波动受到波动区间宽度的限制。如果政府经常调整汇率，那么便是
爬行钉住汇率。
4.Sterilized Intervention 冲销式干预
It is the government makes transactions in the foreign exchange
market and at the same time use other monetary policy tools
(mainly is the open market operation in the national debt market ) to offset the effects of the former in the money supply, so that the
money supply stay the same.The influence of the policy measures by offsetting foreign exchange market transactions in the money
supply are called sterilized measures. And by just taking sterilized measures in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate is called
sterilized Intervention.
是指政府在外汇市场上进行交易的同时，通过其他货币政策工具
（主要是在国债市场上的公开市场业务）来抵销前者对货币供应量
的影响，从而使货币供应量维持不变的外汇市场干预行为。为抵销
外汇市场交易对货币供应量的影响而采用的政策措施被称为冲销措
施。仅仅靠采取冲销以维护固定汇率的行为称为冲销式干预。
5.Official Intervention官方干预
The government often is not willing to let the rate go whenever
private supply and demand drive it.It will use official intervention by monetary authorities entering the foreign exchange market to buy or sell foreign currency to give a direct impact on the rate.Through
this intervention,the government hopes to alter the configuration of
supply and demand,and thus influence the equilibrium value of the exchange rate--the rate that clears the market.
政府往往不愿意汇率完全由私人的供给与需求决定，会通过官方
干预既由货币当局进入外汇市场买入或卖出外汇来直接影响汇率。
政府希望通过这种干预改变外汇的供求状况，进而影响汇率的均衡水平，使市场出清。 6.Foreign-Income Repercussions 外国收入的反作用
The change in a large nation’s demand for imports have
noticeable effects on other countries,the changes in production
and income in the other countries can then feed back into the first country.this is called foreign-income repercussions.These make the true spending multiplier larger than the simple formula 1/(s+m).
Swings in the business cycle (recession or expansion) are not only
internationally contagious but also self-reinforcing.
大国的进口需求变化会对其他国家产生明显的影响，其他国家产出和收入的变化又会反作用到前一个国家，这叫做外国收入的反作用。这种效应使实际支出乘数大于简单计算公式1/(s + m)。商业周期（衰退或繁荣）的变换不仅具有国际扩散效应，而且具有自我加强效应。
7.External Balance 外部均衡
We evaluate external balance against goals related to the
9.The J-Curve Effect J曲线效应（贬值与时滞效应）
J curve effect refers to the Marshall - lenard conditions established cases, because of the time lag effect of contracts in a short term, the value of the country’s current account balance deteriorates at first under devaluation, but improves slowly and
returns to where it started after a moderate time period(perhaps
about 18 months),and thereafter moves above its initial value.
J曲线效应是指在马歇尔-勒纳条件成立的情况下，短期内由于合
同的时滞效应，贬值初期经常项目余额可能首先恶化，经过一段时
间（通常18个月）调整后，才得到慢慢改善回到初始值，并从初始值向上移动。 10.Assignment Rule 指派准则
The policymakers can follow the Assignment Rule.When policies are adjusted smoothly and take quick effect,internal and external balance can be reached by assigning the internal task to fiscal policy and the external task to monetary policy.
政策制定者可以按照指派准则制定政策，通过给财政政策指派内
部平衡任务，给货币政策指派外部平衡任务，便能够实现内外部均衡。
课后答案 第五章6.一价定律会较好地适用于金本位或巨无霸指数么？ The law of one price will hold better for gold . Gold can be traded easily so that
any price differences would lead to arbitrage that would tend to push gold prices (stated in acommon currency by converting prices using market exchange rates ) back close to equality. Big Macs cannot be
arbitraged.If price differences exist , there is no arbitrage pressure,so the price differences can persist . The prices of Big Macs(stated in acommon currency) vary widely around the world. 一价格定律将更好的为金。黄金交易可以轻易使任何价格的差异会导致套利往往会推动金价（表示在共同的货币以市场汇率转换价格）回到接近平等。巨无霸不能套利。如果价格存在差异，不存在套利压力，所以价格差异可以坚持。麦当劳巨无霸的价格（在共同的货币表示）有很大的不同世界。 8. 根据一价定律和货币分析法，为什么在20世纪早期和20世纪晚期马克的名义利率会上升？英镑的名义利率会下降？
According to PPP, the exchange rate value of the DM(relative to the dollar) has risen since the early
1970s because Germany has experienced less in flation than has the United
States―the product price level has risen less in Germany
since the early 1970s than it has risen in the United States. According to the monetary approach, the German price level has not risen as much because the German money supply has increased less than the money supply has increased in the UnitedStates, relative to the growth rates of real domestic production in the two countries. The British pound is the opposite case― more in flation in Britain than in the United States, and higher money growth in Britain.
根据购买力平价，马克汇率（相对于美元）上升了，自上世纪70年代初，因为德国经历了低通货膨胀比美国产品价格水平却低于德国自上世纪70年代初，比它在美国的兴起。根据货币分析法，德国的价格水平没有多大提高因为德国货币供应的增加小于货币供应在美国增加，相对于国内生产实际在这两个国家的增长率。英镑是相反的情况下更多的通货膨胀在英国比在美国，在英国更高的货币增长。 美元挂钩的价值大的投机资金，使政府更可能跑那么lowon官方储备，被迫贬值。
其他简答论述参考
Other simple discourse reference 经常项目三大宏观含义：
Often project three macro meaning: （1）CA=If（f右下角）
(1) CA=If (f lower right corner)
Current account balance equals net foreign investment. Current account balance equals net foreign investment. 经常性项目等于净国外投资
Regular project is equal to the net foreign investment （2）CA=S-Id（d右下角）
(2) CA=S-Id (d lower right corner)
Current account balance equals the difference between national saving 10
.a. The Bretton Woods system was an adjustable pegged
exchange rate system. Countries committed to set and defend fixed exchange
rates, financing temporary payments imbalances out of their official reserve holdings. If a
&fundamental disequilibrium& in a country' s international payments developed, the country could change the value of its fixed exchange rate to a new value. b.The United States was central to the system. As the Bretton Woods system evolved, it became essentially a gold-exchange standard. The monetary authorities of other countries committed to peg the exchange rate values of their currencies to the U.S.dollar. The U.S. Monetary authority committed to buy and sell gold in
exchange for dollars with other countries 'monetary authorities at a fixed dollar price of gold. c.To a large extent speculati on was stabilizing, both for the fixed rates followed by mostcountries, and for the exchange rate value of the
Canadian dollar, which floated during 1950-62. However, the pegged exchange rate values o f currencies sometimes did come under speculative pressure. International in vestors and speculators sometimes believed that they had a one-way speculative bet against currencies that were considered to be &introuble.” If the country did manage to defend the pegged exchange rate value of its currency, the investors betting
against the currency would lose little. They stood to gain a lot of profit if the currency was devalued. Furthermore, the large speculative flows against the currency required large
interventions to defend the currency's pegged value, so that the government was more likely to run so lowon official reserves that it was forced to devalue
A.布雷顿森林体系是一个可调整的钉住汇率制度。致力于建立和维护固定汇率的国家，融资临时收支失衡的官方储备。如果一个“根本性失衡”在一国的国际收支发展，国家可以改变其固定汇率值为新值。
B.美国是该系统的核心。随着布雷顿森林体系的演变，它成为实质上是一种金汇兑本位。其他国家的货币当局承诺挂钩的货币汇率对美元的价值。美国货币当局承诺购买和出售黄金在一个固定的美元黄金价格与其他国家的货币当局兑换。
C.在很大程度上是两speculati稳定，固定利率的大多数国家，和加拿大元的汇率值，它漂浮在1950-62。然而，钉住汇率值的货币有时也受到投机压力。国际投资者和投机者有时认为他们有一个单向投机做空货币，被认为是“可就麻烦了。”如果国家设法捍卫联系汇率升值，投资者押注人民币将失去什么。他们站在那里，获得大量利润，如果货币贬值。此外，对货币的需要大量的干预以捍卫本国货币与
and domestic real investment.
Current account balance equals the difference between national saving and domestic real investment.
经常性项目等于国民储蓄和国内真实投资的差额
Regular project national savings and domestic investment is equal to the real difference （3）CA=Y-E (3) CA=Y-E
Current account balance equals the difference between domestic product and national expenditure.
Current account balance equals the difference between domestic product and national expenditure.
经常性项目等于国内产品支出与国民消费的差额
The difference between the regular project is equal to domestic products and national consumption expenditure 布雷顿僧林体系崩溃的原因：
Reasons Bretton monk forest system collapse: 一、具体原因
First, the specific reason 1投机者单向投机
1 one-way speculative speculators 2美元危机： 2 dollar crisis:
（1）美国黄金储备减少。
(1) reduce the gold reserves of the United states. （2）美国通货膨胀加剧，美元贬值加剧。
(2) the United States inflation, devaluation of the dollar intensified. （3）美国国际收支持续逆差。
(3) a persistent deficit of the US balance of payments. 3经济危机频发
The 3 economic crisis prone
二、布雷顿森林体系的根本缺陷―特里芬难题 （Triffin dilemma)
The fundamental defect - Triffin poser two, the Bretton Woods system (Triffin dilemma)
美元具有美国本币和世界货币的双重身份及保持其与黄金可兑换性和满足国际清偿力的双重责任。由于规定了双挂钩制度，由于黄金的产量和美国黄金储备的增长跟不上世界经济和国际贸易的发展，于是，美元便出现了一种进退两难的状况：为满足世界经济增长和国际贸易发展，美元的供应必须不断地增长；美元供应的不断增长，使美元同黄金的兑换性日益难以维持。
The dollar has dual identity American currency and the world monetary and maintain its dual responsibility of gold
convertibility and meet the international liquidity. Due to the provisions of the double hook system, due to the development, production of gold and America gold reserves can not keep up with the world economy and international trade and, the dollar would appear a kind of be in a nice hobble situation: in order to meet the growth of the world economy and international trade development, the supply of dollars must continue to
increasing the supply of dollars, the convertibility of the dollar and gold has become increasingly difficult to maintain.
“特里芬两难”指出了布雷顿森林体系的内在不稳定性及危机发生的
必然性和性质。这个危机的性质就是美元的可兑换性危机，即美元无法按固定比价维持同黄金的兑换性，或可称为人们对美元可兑换性的信心危机。
&Triffin Dilemma& indicates the inevitability and inherent instability and crisis of the Bretton Woods system happened. Crisis convertibility nature long run aggregate demand may be stronger, longer duration. P228图
P228 diagram
两个图中，经济处于三线交点E0，财政扩张使得IS移到IS’，推动国内利率由由6%提高到8%，产出由110到130，
of this crisis is the dollar, or $unable to maintain exchange of fixed parity with gold, or can be called the people to the convertibility of the dollar's confidence crisis. 布雷顿森林体系特点:
The characteristics of the Bretton Woods system:
美元与黄金挂钩。其他国家货币与美元挂钩。
First, the dollar and gold hook. Other currencies pegged to the dollar. 第二，
实行可调整的固定汇率。 Second, a fixed exchange rate adjustment.
各国货币兑换性与国际支付结算原则。
Third countries, currency exchange and international payments and settlement principle.
确定国际储备资产。
Fourth, determine the international reserve assets. 第五，
国际收支的调节
Fifth, the adjustment of international payment 浮动汇率制度下货币政策的有效性：
The floating exchange rate system to the effectiveness of monetary policy under the:
在浮动汇率制度下，货币政策对国内产出和收入有强烈的影响。 In the floating exchange rate system, the monetary policy has a strong influence on domestic output and income. 说下p225页的图，画P226页图
Said P225 page map, draw the P226 chart
假设一国经济开始处于外部均衡――即图中的三线交点E0，当央行增加货币供给，使LM向下移到LM’,使国内利率由6%下降到5%，以及实际国内产出由110提升到120，此时，国际收支趋于赤字（LM’曲线与IS曲线交点T1位于FE曲线右面）。在外汇市场上，该国货币贬值，随着该国价格竞争力的增强，出口增加，进口减少，经常项目得到改善，因此FE和IS都向右移动，如果浮动汇率达到外部均衡值（该国官方结算余额为零），那么三线会处于新的三线交点E1点，由于贬值，Y增加的会更多，达到125，因此说在浮动汇率制度下，货币政策在短期内对实际GDP有强烈的影响。 If a country's economy started in the external balance -- that is the intersection of three lines in the E0 diagram, when the central bank to increase the money supply, the LM dropped to LM ', so that the domestic interest rate dropped from 6% to 5%, and the real domestic output increased from 110 to 120, at this time, the international balance of payments deficit (LM' curve tends to be with IS T1 is located in the intersection curve FE curve right). In the foreign exchange market, the country's currency devaluation, with enhanced price competitiveness of the country's exports increase, the reduction of import, often project improved, so FE and IS have the right move, if floating exchange rate to achieve external equilibrium value (the country's official settlements balance is zero), then the three lines will be in the intersection of three lines of E1 points that new due to depreciation, the increase of Y will be more, up to 125, so that in the floating exchange rate system, the
monetary policy has a strong influence on the actual GDP in the short term.
浮动汇率制度下财政政策的有效性：
The floating exchange rate system effectiveness of fiscal policy under the:
财政政策在两方面影响汇率，由于政府借债增多，财政扩张使得国内利率上升，更高的国内利率在短期内引起资本流入；同时，更多的财政支出和更低的税率促进总支出、总产出、总收入都有所提高，这又使得进口增加，经常项目收支恶化。因而财政政策效应对总差额和货币汇率值，存在相反的变化压力，短期内资本流入效应可能使本币升值，在长期看来总需求可能力量更强，持续时间更长。 Fiscal policy effects of exchange rate in two aspects, because the
government debt increases, fiscal expansion makes the domestic interest rates rise, higher domestic interest rates caused by capital inflo at the same time, more spending and lower taxes to promote the total expenditure, total output, total income are improved, which makes the increase in imports, the current account deterioration.
Therefore, the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate balance and currency values, there are changes in pressure on the contrary, the short term capital inflow effects may cause their currencies to appreciate, in the
In the two picture, the economy is in the intersection of three lines of E0, fiscal expansion make IS move to IS', promote domestic interest rates by 6% increased to 8%, the output from 110 to 130,
A图描述国际收支趋向盈余的情况，主要原因是资本流动效应更大一些，IS’-LM焦点位于初始FE线的左边，说明国际收支处于盈余状态，随机本币升值，经常项目开始恶化，FE与IS’向左移到FE2和IS2，交汇到新的均衡点E2，由于本币升值，产出由130下降到125（5即为受国际挤出效应被削减的Y）
A diagram to describe the international balance of payments surplus situation tendency, the main reason is the capital flow effect is larger, IS' -LM initial FE line focus is on the left, shows that the international balance of payments in surplus, random currency appreciation, often project began to deteriorate, FE and IS' shift left to FE2 and IS2 to the new equilibrium point, convergence E2, as a result of currency
appreciation, output fell from 130 to 125 (5 is the crowding out effect to be cut by the international Y)
B图描述了国际收支赤字的情况，主要原因是总需求效应更大一些――IS’-LM 焦点位于初始FE线的右边，说明国际收支处于赤字状态，随机本币贬值，经常项目开始好转，FE与IS’向右移，交汇到新的均衡点E3，由于本币贬值，产出由130上升到140 B diagram describes the international balance of payments deficit
situation, the main reason is that the effects of aggregate demand more some -- IS' -LM initial FE line focus is on the right, shows that the international balance of payments deficits, random devaluation, often project began to turn for the better, FE and IS' to the right, the
intersection to the new equilibrium point E3, because of the currency depreciation, output increased from 130 to 140 蒙代尔指派原则的参考资料：
Mundell assignment principle of reference: 含义： Meaning:
蒙代尔指派原则是指每一目标应当指派给对这一目标有相对最大的影响力，因而在影响政策目标上有相对优势的工具。分派给财政政策文观内部均衡的目标，同时分派给货币政策实现外部均衡的目标。 Mundell appointed principle is that each target should be assigned to a relative maximum influence on this goal, thus have the relative
advantages of the tools in the impact of policy target. Assigned to the fiscal policy the objectives of internal equilibrium, and assigned to the monetary policy to achieve the goal of external equilibrium. 缺点和不足：
Shortcomings and deficiencies:
(1)蒙代尔的政策指派只是一种理想，实际是经济生活比此理论的论述要复杂得多。例如，财政政策和货币政策要由两个不同的部门上实施，其相互协调也不是那么容易。
(1) Mundell's policy assignment is a kind of ideal, is the actual economic life than this theory is much more complex. For example, fiscal policy and monetary policy should be implemented by two different departments, coordination is not so easy.
(2)蒙代尔只强调了利率变化对资本流动的影响，忽视了汇率、通货膨胀、国际间的资金的投机性冲击和政治经济情况的变化等对资本流动的影响。事实上，开放经济下运用政策搭配实现内外均衡是一个非常复杂的前沿问题，并不像蒙代尔考虑的那么简单。
(2) Mundell only emphasizes the impact of interest rate changes on the capital flow, exchange rate, inflation, ignoring the impact between international speculative capital impact and the political and economic situation changes on capital flow. In fact, with the realization of the internal and external equilibrium is a very complex problem using the frontier policy under open economy, and unlike Mundell considered so simple. 优点： Advantages:
蒙代尔得出的结论是：如果每一工具被合理地指派给一个目标，并且在该目标偏离其最佳水平时按规则进行调控，那么在分散决策的情况下仍有可能实现最佳调控目标。这一原则成为后续理论研究和政策运用的基本准则，由此而引发的关于政策目标与政策工具合理配置的有关研究，不仅再次拓展了关于政府政策效应的理论分析，
而且也极大的便利了现实中的政策操作，为实际的政策运用提供了一种基本准则。
Mundell's conclusion is: if every tool to be reasonably assigned to a target, and deviated from its optimal level in the target according to the rules of regulation, so in a decentralized decision situation is still
possible to achieve the goal of optimal control. This principle becomes the basic criterion for the follow-up study of the theory and policy application, relevant research on reasonable disposition of policy objectives and policy instruments arising therefrom, again not only expand the analysis about government policy effect theory, but also
greatly facilitate the reality of policy operation, provides a basic criterion for the actual application of policy.
短期汇率向长期汇率的过渡――汇率超调模型Overshooting Model The short-term rate of transition to long-term exchange rate overshooting model -- Overshooting Model
理论核心：与货币模型相比，这一模型的最大特点在于，它认为商品市场与金融资产市场的价格调整速度是不同的。由于商品市场的价格具有粘性的特点，货币市场失衡的调整，短期内完全由资产市场来承担，引起利率和汇率水平的超调。当商品价格开始调整时，超调得以纠正，市场达到长期均衡。经济存在着由短期平衡向长期平衡的过渡过程。
The theory of the core: compared with the model of currency, is the biggest characteristic of this model, it considers the speed of price adjustment of the commodity market and financial asset markets are different. Due to the characteristics of the commodity market prices are sticky, the monetary disequilibrium adjustment, short-term assets to bear completely by market, interest rate and exchange rate level caused by the overshoot. When commodity prices began to adjust, overshoot is
corrected, the market to achieve long-term equilibrium. Economy exist the short-term balance by the transition to long-term equilibrium.
基本假设：与弹性价格货币分析法相同，超调模型（又称为粘性价格货币分析法）也认为货币需求是稳定的、非套补利率平价是成立的。但是它认为商品市场价格存在粘性，这导致它在分析前提上与货币模型存在不同：
The basic assumption: method for the same and the flexible price monetary analysis, overshooting model (also known as sticky price monetary approach) also believe that money demand is stable, non covered interest rate parity is established. But it said the commodity market price is viscous, which leads to it in the analysis of premise and monetary model in the presence of different:
1. 购买力平价在短期内不成立。作为资产价格，汇率的调整是迅速的，而商品价格的调整是滞后的，这样在短期内就不能满足购买力平价的要求。在长期中，价格水平可以充分调整，购买力平价则可以较好成立。
1 purchasing power parity does not hold in the short term. As asset prices, the exchange rate adjustment is rapid, and the commodity price
adjustment is lagging behind, so that in a short time can not meet the purchasing power parity requirements. In the long run, the price level can be fully adjusted, PPP can be better established.
2. 总供给曲线在短期内不是垂直的。在引起汇率变动的冲击发生的刹那，总供给不会变动，但稍后，在短期内总供给可以对需求的增加做出反应。
2 of the total supply curve in the short term is not vertical. In the cause of exchange rate changes impact occurs the moment, the total supply will not change, but later, in the short term can increase the total supply of demand response.超调模型中的平衡调整过程：以其它条件不变，本国货币供给一次性增加10%为例，说明超调模型中短期和长期内各经济变量的变化。
Balance adjustment process overshoot in the model: in the other conditions remain unchanged, the domestic money supply one-time increase in 10% as an example, explain the change of overshooting model in the short and long term of all economic variables.
1、经济的长期平衡相当于弹性价格货币分析法。本国货币供给一次性增加10%→长期内P1=1.1P0，汇率为e=1.1e0 ，利率与产出均不发生变动。
The long-term balance 1, economy is equivalent to the flexible price monetary approach. The domestic money supply increased by 10%, a one-time long term P1=1.1P0 e=1.1e0, exchange rate, interest rate and output are not changed.
2、经济的短期平衡（设在t时刻增加货币供给）在货币市场上，当名义货币供给瞬时增加而价格、产出水平在瞬时不发生变动的情况下，势必造成实际货币余额的上升、国内利率下降，从而提高货币需求以维持货币市场的平衡。国利率的下降（假定国外利率不变），以及预期外币升值（或本币要贬值），使投资者转持外币资产的意愿加强，从而增加了对外币的需求，促使外币迅速升值。
2 short-term balance, economy (in the moment of t increase in the supply of money) in the money market, when the nominal money supply and prices, output level is transiently increased in the instantaneous change of circumstances, is bound to cause real money balances rise, domestic interest rates, thereby increasing money demand in order to maintain the balance of monetary market. Decline in the interest rate (assuming that the foreign interest rate unchanged), and the expected foreign currency appreciation (or depreciation of the currency will enable investors), to holders of foreign currency assets will strengthen, thus increasing the demand for foreign currency, the foreign currency to appreciate rapidly promote.
短期内外汇升值的幅度将是多少？根据非套补的利率平价：
超调模型中本国货币供给一次性增加的影响
How much is the short-term foreign exchange appreciation rate? According to the non covered interest rate parity: the impact of the domestic money supply overshooting model one-time increase
（eex-e）/e = i - if
if不变，i↓， eex↑，e↑ (eex-e) /e = I - if if invariant, I down, Eex matrix, e matrix
这意味着t时刻的即期汇率e的上涨幅度应大于预期的外币汇率eex升值幅度（预期的汇率eex为长期均衡汇率，即 eex =1.1e0，所以t时刻外币上涨幅度大于10%。）
This means that the spot rate of t moment e increase should be greater than the expected appreciation of the foreign currency exchange rate Eex (expected rate of Eex for the long-term equilibrium exchange rate, namely Eex =1.1e0, so t time foreign currency increases greater than 10%.)
由上看出，由于商品市场价格粘性的存在，当货币供给一次性增加以后，本币汇率的瞬时贬值程度大于其长期贬值程度，我们称这一现象为汇率的超调（Overshooting）。
From that, due to the commodity market price stickiness, when the money supply one-time increase, instantaneous currencies devaluation degree is larger than its long-term depreciation degree, we call this phenomenon as an overshooting of the exchange rate (Overshooting). 在短期内，价格水平不发生调整，货币供给的一次性增加只是造成本国利率的下降，本币汇率的贬值幅度超过长期均衡水平。
In the short term, the price level is not changed, a one-time increase in the supply of money is caused by a decline in interest rates, the currency exchange rate depreciation over the long-term equilibrium level.
如果我们将其与由购买力平价所意味的各时期路径相比，汇率在短期内会超调得更多。因为国内价格水平只是缓慢地上升至增长10%的水平，PPP本身意味着汇率也应当逐渐地上升到增加10%的水平。这样，在货币供给增长之后的大约一年之中，实际即期汇率的大幅度增长似乎与这一年内国内通货膨胀率的有限增幅根本不一致。 If we place it in each period path means that the PPP exchange rate compared, in the short term will overshoot more. Because the domestic price level is only slowly rises to the level of 10% growth, PPP itself means that the exchange rate should be gradually increased to increase the level of 10%. So, after the money supply growth for about a year, greatly increased the actual spot exchange rate seems to be related to the limited growth rate of domestic inflation this year don't agree. 3、经济由短期平衡向长期平衡的调整
3, from short-term to long-term economic balance balance adjustment 1）价格水平：由于产出超过充分就业水平，物价水平开始缓慢上升。在较长时期内，价格水平可以进行调整。
1) the price level: because the output exceeds the level of full
employment, price level began to rise slowly. In the longer term, the price level can be adjusted.
2）本国的利率：由于产出增加，货币需求上升，价格水平上升，实际货币供给下降，本国的利率水平也开始上升。
2) interest rates: due to increased output, money demand rises, the price level rises, the real money supply decreased, their level of interest rates began to rise.
3）汇率：本国利率的上升，以及预期外汇从现时的高价将贬值，阻止了投资者对外汇进行投资，e逐渐下降（本币升值）。这一升值是在原有过度贬值的基础上进行的，体现为汇率逐步向其长期均衡水平的趋近。
3) exchange rate: a rise in domestic interest rates and the expected depreciation of foreign exchange, the current high prices from, prevent investors foreign exchange investment, e decreased gradually
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