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里国白糖期货市场风险控制的数学研究.pdf 46页
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里国白糖期货市场风险控制的数学研究
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华北水利水电学院硕士学位论文中国白糖期货市场风险控制的数学研究姓名：蔡义琼申请学位级别：硕士专业：应用数学指导教师：姬广坡；刘法贵201111中国白糖期货市场风险控制的数学研究摘要期货作为一种金融衍生工具，是我国市场经济中不可或缺的组成部分。然而，期货交易的“高风险、高收益”特点，其自身也蕴含着各种各样的风险。我国期货市场自??年成立以来，至今已有十几年的发展历史，在这十多年的发展过程中，风险事件是屡屡发生，阻碍了我国市场经济的健康发展。因此，加强我国期货市场的风险控制和管理，对促进我国期货市场发挥基本功能和金融市场的健康发展，具有十分重要的意义。在期货市场上，期货合约价格波动是期货交易风险变化最直接的原因。本文在介绍我国白糖期货特点和我国期货市场风险特征的基础上，运用多种统计方法如：??煅椤??臣屏糠治觥???甃?煅椤???模型、???Ｐ偷龋?晕夜?诨跏谐『兔?国期货市场价格收益率及波动性等问题进行分析和实证检验。数据分析在???软件中进行，论文的主要研究内容和成果如下：??疚亩晕夜?滋瞧诨鹾兔拦?滋瞧诨醯氖找媛市蛄械姆植继卣鹘?辛搜芯浚?发现它们都是有偏的、尖峰厚尾的和非正态的，通过检验得出它们的收益率序列都是自相关的、平稳的序列。其中美糖期货的分布形态更为明显。?、运用??类模型对两个市场的价格波动进行实证分析。先对两个市场的价格收益率建立???Ｐ停?⑾至绞谐〉募鄹癫ǘ?洗螅?中?越暇茫?得髁绞谐《晕蠢?价格波动的预测具有重要的意义。更好的预测未来价格的波动，能够有效地减少风险。然后建立???Ｐ停?⑾质谐〉睦?障?⒂跋烨坑诶?孟?⒌挠跋欤?礁鍪谐〉陌?糖期货价格波动都存在着“杠杆效益”，并对两个市场进行比较，得到两市的波动性的非对称性存在一定的差异，其中我国白糖期货市场的利空消息作用大于利多消息的程度大于美国白糖期货市场。??韵纸锥挝夜?诨跏谐》缦湛刂品矫嫣岢隽降憬ㄒ椋孩偌涌臁镀诨醴ā返某?台，能够加强期货投资的监管，完善市场规则，保持期货市场健康、有序的发展。②推出金融衍生品市场的建设，活跃期货交易，风险控制策略更加丰富，尽可能的减少市场关键词：期货市场；风险控制；风险。???Ｐ?抽????????????鐃??研?????苚?琧???．?????????吼????????孤?????．???????，?如??????．???????、??．?Ⅵ恤???．?????也???????瑆????????????，????瓾???’如???衋?????????????獃??，????矗】??????闠?????’?騮????甀???????瑃??????????琖??????痵????甌????，?????如??阤????????．??????’?????．???，???矗????也??烤省縭????鏽??．???????颉鎠?甋．???鐃??．????瓼??????????甌????：????甌??????????瑂???????，??????瓼???，??????如??????鐃?????鐃??????瓹???????．???、????，??????畁???甌?????．????．????．???瑃??????，??畂??璷????：①??????．②??玛???騮???詗??：?憾?????????甶?????????畇?????????．??????猟?鵨????????????????ⅱ鬳??唱?????，???????甀???；????護?籊????????????．???瑆?????????阰??阛????·矗’髀???研究的背景和意义??国内外研究的现状??．??庋芯肯肿?随着经济全球一体化，我国金融市场与国际金融市场接轨，金融市场的不断发展，为我国经济发展提供巨大机遇的同时，也为我国经济带来了风险。金融衍生品的急剧膨胀，新的投资品种不断出现，这些都为投资者带来了各种不同的风险。在我国，期货市场属于刚发展起来的一种新的衍生品市场。它的诞生，犹如一把双刃剑，他能够为投资者化解、分散现货市场上的风险，但是由于期货市场自身所固有的特点，也会投资者带来了新的风险。因此，如果我们能够正确的发挥期货市场的功能，就可以利用其很好的控制风险，如果利用的不好，反而会使其产生更大的风险。纵观国际期货市场一百多年的发展历程，风险事件是屡见不鲜，如震惊国际金融界的英国巴林银行破产案、美国加州橘县事件以及日本大和银行国债案等，都说明了期货市场的不同发展阶段都面临着风险管理和风险控制的艰巨任务。我国期货市场只有?多年的历史，在风险控制方面还不成熟，因此风险事件也是屡屡发生，“????录?薄?“国储铜事件”等事件的发生都使我国经济遭受巨大的损失。它们的发生为我国期货市场敲响了警钟。因此加强期货市场风险控制对我期货市场健康稳定发展具有重要意
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